芦山地震前宏观异常现象的调研与分析

Field Investigation and Analysis of Macro-anomalies before the Lushan M_S7.0 Earthquake,Sichuan,China

作者于2013年6月底,前往芦山、雅安和成都等在"4·20"芦山地震中震感强烈的村镇,对地震前宏观异常信息开展了采集与调研。通过设计宏观异常调研问卷,与当地居民进行了一对一的访谈、共收集134份问卷,其中含有地震前宏观异常信息88条,包括动物、气象、地声、地磁、地下流体、地雾、人体7种类型。通过调研以及对调研问卷的分析表明,芦山地震前确实存在着一定数量和范围的宏观异常现象,芦山地震和汶川地震前宏观异常特征具有较大相似性。调研中还发现与城市相比,农村因动植物资源丰富,自然景观与自然现象相对少受人为干扰,是地震前宏观异常的主要发生地,因此,应该加强广大农村地区地震的认知培训和宏观异常上报信息平台建设,发挥专群结合在地震预测预报中的作用。

We conducted a systematic field acquisition and investigation into the macro-anomaly cases occurred at the Lushan earthquake region at the end of June, 2013 particular in Lushan, Yaan, Chengdu and other counties where people had strong feeling when the earthquake happened. About 134 questionnaires were collected by means of one-to-one conversational interview with local residents and 88 cases of phenomena taken place in animal behaviour, meteorological conditions, earthquake sound, electromagnetic field, underground fluid, and etc.. According to our investigation, earthquake precursory phenomena in the seismic area are considered to be actual existence. The macroscopic anomaly before earthquake between Lushan earthquake and Wenchuan earthquake has similar characteristics. Compared with city, countryside is the main place where the macro-anomalies came up before earthquakes by the reason of plentiful plant, animal resources, natural landscape and natural phenomenon which are less influenced by human disturbance relatively. Therefore we should strengthen the earthquake scientific cognition of the rural people and build the macro-anomalies reporting information system to make the professional and mass combination play a great role in the earthquake prediction.