典型陆地生态系统对气候变化响应的定量研究

A review of responses of typical terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

森林、农田和草地生态系统对气候变化响应定量研究进展的综合分析表明:近一个世纪以来的森林、农田和草地生态系统对气候变化有很强的响应,诸多生态系统类型的组成、结构和分布已发生了显著变化;由于病虫害、极端气候频发,植物物种的死亡率增加、生产力出现下降趋势;典型陆地生态系统对气候响应的未来情景分析结果表明,高海拔地区和高纬度地区的生态系统类型的结构、分布、物种和生产力将发生较大变化;然而,由于生物群落的相互作用,各种生态系统对气候变化的响应很复杂,目前人类对典型陆地生态系统变化的认识仍然处在很初级的阶段.尤其是在气候变化对植物物种的影响、干旱和极端事件的后果以及病虫害的影响等方面,还没有明确的结论;根据目前的研究积累,还无法给出气候变化对典型陆地生态系统影响的综合定量评估,需要改进区域气候模拟,尤其是降雨量的模拟,需要提高植物物种对气候、病虫害和大气成分响应的认识.以典型陆地生态系统对全球气候变化响应机理研究成果为基础、集成空间对地观测数据和地面实测数据的多尺度生态系统动态模拟分析平台,到目前为止,仍是亟待填补的空白.

Analyses of ecosystem change trends since the 1920s have indicated that forest, farmland and grassland ecosystems have had strong responses to climate change. Many ecosystems have obviously changed in composition, structure and distribution. Ecosystem productivity has a decreasing trend because of plant disease and insect pests, frequent occurrence of extreme weather, and increasing mortality of plant species. Scenarios of responses of typical ecosystems to climate change show that structure, distribution, species and productivity would greatly change in areas at high altitude and latitude. However, these responses are very complex, because of complex interactions among biotic communities. Understanding of ecosystem change is still very elementary. There is no definite conclusion, especially regarding impacts of climate change on plant species, extreme climate consequences, and plant diseases and insect pests. Comprehensive assessment of climate change effects on typical ecosystems is difficult to accomplish with current knowledge. We need to construct a platform for simulating ecosystem dynamics by integrating remote sensing and ground-truth data, based on studying the mechanisms of ecosystem response to climate change.