人口老龄化视角下的新型农村养老保险可持续性分析——基于云南省的实证研究

Analysis of the Sustainability of the New Rural Pension Insurance——An Empirical Study Based on Yunnan Province

农村人口老龄化进程的加快,对于目前新农村养老保险的可持续性提出了挑战,本文以2010年第六次全国人口普查数据为依据,构建人口预测模型和新农村养老保险基金收支模型,以云南省为例对模型进行检验,分析了云南省未来人口老龄化发展趋势以及新农村养老保险基金收支之间存在的缺口。据此提出了应对云南省人口老龄化加剧,促进新农村养老保险制度可持续发展的政策建议。

As the aging process of rural population speeds up, it raises challenge to the sustainability of the new rural pension insurance. This paper, based on the 2010 sixth national population census data, builds a population forecast model and the mod- el of the new rural pension insurance fund budget. Then applying the models to the study of Yunnan province, it analyzes its future population aging trends and the gaps between income and expenditure of the new rural pension insurance fund. At last, some relevant recommendations and policies are proposed to deal with an ageing population and promote the sustainable development of the new rural pension insurance system in Yunnan province.