房地产价格与货币政策调控研究——基于贝叶斯估计的动态随机一般均衡模型

The Analysis of Real Estate Price and Monetary Policy——Basing on the Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

房地产价格高涨是近年来中国货币政策调控面临的新问题。通过构建并估计含有金融部门、房地产生产部门以及对银行信贷附加房地产抵押限制的动态随机一般均衡模型,剖析了货币政策与房地产价格之间的作用机制。结果表明,中国央行在2003-2012年的实践中已将房地产价格纳入到货币政策调控的反应规则中;同时,在货币政策调控的基础上,配合使用降低贷款价值比等宏观审慎政策,可以有效降低金融系统的风险,提升调控政策稳定经济的效果。

The real estate price soaring in recently years presents new problems to Chinese monetary policy. By building and estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE）model with financial sector, real estate producing sector and real estate mortgage restrictions, it analyzes the mechanism between real estate price and monetary policy. The result shows out that the central bank of China had already taken real estate price into monetary policy response rules during 2003Q1 to 2012Q4. Additionally, the using of macro- prudential policy, such as lowering the loan- to -value ratio, will reduce the risk of financial system and enhance the effects of regulatory policies to stabilize the economy.