河南省暴雪相似预报系统

The System of Snowstorm Forecast with Analogue Method in Henan Province

利用欧洲中心 3层数值预报产品 ,综合运用相似系数和距离系数 ,研制建立了既反映环流形势相似又反映强度值相似的河南省暴雪 2 4h预报系统。利用 1996～ 1998年冬季 (11月～次年 3月 )资料进行反算 ,暴雪预报准确率为 41.7% ;1999年 11月至 2 0 0 0年 1月间进行业务试验 ,取得了较为满意的结果。

With the ECMWF NWP product of three layers, by exerting the similarity Coefficient and the range coefficient, we have achieved the system of snowstorm forecast 24 hours ahead with the Analogue Method in Henan Province. The system can reflect not only the similarity on circulation, but also on intensity. The forecast accuracy of snowstorm is 41.7%, which we got by retrieving the data of the 1996～1998 winter. What's more, it has been tested daily in the 1999～2000 winter and the forecast accuracy is satisfactory.