分红型两全保险预期收益率研究——基于消费者角度的案例分析

The Expected Rate of Return of Participating Endowment Insurance: Case Studies from Consumer's Perspective

近年来，投资性的分红型两全保险成为我国寿险市场上保费收入第一的产品，但大多数消费者甚至保险销售人员对该产品的收益能力都缺乏科学认识。本文从消费者角度，在考虑分红险现金流不确定性的基础上，采用内部收益率法对两款长期分红型两全保险的预期收益率进行了计算，发现：长期分红型两全保险的预期收益率按低、中、高档分红水平分别在1．5％～2．6％、2．8％～3．9％、4．0％～5．2％之间。长期分红型两全保险的实际收益率是不确定的，对个体而言，在其他条件不变的情况下，购险时被保险人年龄越小，购险时选择的交费期限越短，在保险期限内退保时间越晚，在保险期限内被保险人死亡时间越早，则预期收益率越高。尽管分红型两全保险有保底收益率，但当消费者在保单年度前几年退保时，投资收益率为负值，最低收益率约为-65％。

In recent years, investment-oriented participating endowment policy has become the largest product in China＇ s life insurance industry. But most consumers,even salespersons don＇ t understand the return of this product scientifically. From the consumer point of view and considering uncertainty of policy cash flow, this paper calculated the internal rate of return of two long-term participating endowment policies, and found that ：The expected rate of re- turn of long-term participating endowment policies were within the ranges of 1.5% -2.6% ,2.8% -3.9% ,4.0% -5.2% at low,medium and high bonus levels,respectively. The actual rate of return for an individual purchaser is uncertain. The younger the insured when he makes the purchase, the shorter the premium payment period, the later the surrender time,the earlier the insured die within the validity of the policy,the higher the expected rate of re- turn. Although there is an interest rate guarantee embedded in participating endowment policy, the return can be negative and the minimum return can be as low as 65 % , if the purchaser surrenders the policy in early policy years.