绵阳市耕地面积动态变化及对农业产值影响

On the Dynamic Change of the Farmland in Mianyang and Its Impact on Agricultural Output

利用近十年绵阳市耕地面积的数据,对此期间的耕地面积与人均耕地面积变动进行阐述；通过计算1960～2010年绵阳市的耕地增减率,利用SPSS对其驱动因子进行分析,得出结论：绵阳市经济发展,总人口增长对耕地面积的下降呈现负相关关系.对影响绵阳市农业产值的因素进行回归分析,说明城市的经济发展对农业产值的提升较之耕地面积的波动有更大的影响,进而提出相应的对策建议.

By use of the data for the farmland of Mianyang in recent ten years, an overall description was given on the dynamic changes in the area of arable land and the area per capita. The gradient of the farmland in the years between 1960 and 2010 was calculated and by the use of SPSS a driving factor analysis was done and it was found that： there exists a negative cor- relation in between the economic development, the growth of the total population and the decrease in arable land. A regressive analysis of the influencing factors of agricultural output finds that the economic development of a city exerts greater impact on the agricultural output than the fluctuation in the area of the arable land and some counter measures were suggested as well.