气候变暖对渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲棉花生产的影响

Impact of climate warming on cotton production of Ugan-Kuqa River delta oasis

利用库车、沙雅、新和气象站1961-2010年的日均气温数据,揭示了气候变暖对渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲棉花生产的影响。结果显示:①研究区近50a来气温均呈变暖趋势,春季气温升高1.75℃,夏季气温升高1.65℃,秋季气温升高2.05℃;棉花生长旺期5-9月的平均最低气温升高2.55℃,平均最高气温升高0.3℃;≥10℃积温升高361.1℃。②由于春季增温加快,秋季降温减缓,棉花播种期提早8 d,停止生长期推迟6 d,全生育期延长14 d;由于在生育期平均最低气温和≥10℃积温升高,使棉花生长发育期热量得到较大补偿,不良的灾害性气候条件降到最低,光合作用增强,光温资源匹配更加协调,使有效增加棉花的干物质积累,从而提高棉花单产,近50a来研究区的棉花光温生产潜力提高18.65%,实际产量提高437.38%。③研究区棉花平均光温生产潜力4238 kg/hm2,是平均实际产量的2.45倍。随着棉花栽培技术的不断改善、棉花高产优质品种的广泛应用、先进灌溉技术的大面积推广,棉花光温生产潜力能够实现的程度会越来越高。

This paper uses average daily temperature data of 1961-2010 obtained from Kuqa, Shaya and Xinhe weather stations to reveal the impact of climate warming on cotton production of Ugan-Kuqa River delta oasis. Results showed that： （1） The temperature of the research area, during recent 50 years, showed an increasing trend, the spring temperature rose by 1.75℃, the summer temperature by 1.65℃, and autumn temperature by 2.05℃; the average minimum and maximum temperature from April to October rose by 2.25℃ and 0.05℃, respectively; the average minimum and maximum temperature from May to September rose by 2.55℃, and 0.3-2, respectively; accumulated temperature （≥ 10℃） rose by 361.1℃. （2） Due to the accelerating spring warming, and slowing fall cooling, cotton sowing advanced eight days, stop growing delayed six days, and growth period extended about 14 days; As the average minimum temperature in growth period and ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature had risen, the heat resources of cotton growth period increased, poor climatic conditions was down to the lowest, photosynthetic rate was stronger, light and temperature matching were more coordinated, so that the cotton dry matter accumulation has been effectively increased, which resulted in increasing cotton yield per unit. The cotton light and temperature potential productivity of the research area in recent 50 years increased by 18.65%, and the actual production increased by 437.38%. （3） The average cotton light and temperature potential productivity in the study area was 4238 kg/hm^2, which was 2.45 times of the average actual production. With the development of cotton farming and cultivation technology, the wide application of high-yielding cotton varieties, and the extensive use of water-saving irrigation technologies, levels of cotton light and temperature potential productivity will be higher in the future.