利率管制与总需求结构失衡

Interest Rate Control and the Imbalance of Aggregate Demand Structure

本文通过引入"扭曲税"刻画利率管制,构建了一个含有异质性生产效率冲击与融资约束的动态一般均衡模型,并用此来研究利率管制对总需求结构失衡的影响以及利率市场化改革的宏观经济效应。研究发现,利率管制能够扩大投资、挤压消费,而融资约束强化了利率管制的作用效果,因此利率管制加剧了总需求结构失衡程度。如果进行利率市场化改革,家庭可支配收入将增加,居民部门消费占GDP的比重将提高4.7个百分点,总需求结构有所改善。但是,利率市场化之后贷款利率会提高25.4%,投资规模将因为资金成本上升而大幅萎缩,而融资约束使得资本配置效率难以改善,两方面作用将使总产出下降7.2%。由于目前经济和社会对产出下降的承受力较低,因此利率市场化改革不宜过于激进,而应该稳步推进。

This paper introduces interest rate control depicted by ＂distorting tax＂ into a dynamic general equilibrium model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks and financial constraints, in order to study effects of interest rate control on the imbalance of aggregate demand structure and effects of interest rate liberalization on the macro economy. The result implies that interest rate control accounts for the imbalance of aggregate demand structure by enlarging investment scale and squeezing out consumption. Moreover financial constraints reduce efficiency of capital realloeation, and therefore exacerbate the effects of interest rate control. Interest rate liberalization could increase households＇ disposable income, and therefore incline consumption-GDP ratio by 4.7 base-points, which benefits rebalaneing of aggregate demand structure. But the liberalization leads to a sharp rise of interest rate by 25.4% , and therefore investment scale slumps due to an upturn of capital cost while capital misallocation remains severe because of financial friction, and total output drops by 7. 2% eventually. Nowadays, deep-side economic problems still make the Chinese society difficult to withstand output collapse. We suggest implementing interest rate liberalization gradually, rather than radically.