核电项目暂停审批与我国减排目标的实现:基于CGE模型分析

Stopping approving nuclear power projects and China's commitment of emissions mitigation:An analysis based on computable general equilibrium model

受日本核泄漏事件影响,国务院提出在核安全规划批准前,暂停审批核电项目.作为我国重要的清洁能源之一,核电项目的暂停审批将对我国2020年减排目标的实现造成怎样的影响,同时如何调整其他清洁能源的发展规划,才能保证减排目标的实现?为研究这一问题,构建了我国清洁能源发展的递归动态可计算一般均衡模型,该模型将核电,水电,以及其他清洁能源发电作为重要的能源要素包含于生产模块中,并基于2007年数据动态至2020年,对核电项目暂停审批下不同的清洁能源发展情景进行模拟研究.模拟结果表明:在核电项目暂停审批的情景下,我国能否实现2020年的减排目标与诸多因素密切相关,特别是能源消费弹性;而加快其他非核电清洁能源的发展,将有助于我国减排目标的实现.

Due to Japanese nuclear leakage, the State Council of China claimed to stop approving new nuclear power projects before nuclear safety program was enacted. Since nuclear power is one of the most important clean energy sources, how will this affect China＇s emissions reduction target in 2020, and how should we adjust development planning of other clean energy sources in order to meet China＇s commitment of emissions mitigation？ To address these questions, a CGE-based clean energy development model for China was developed in this paper. In the proposed model, nuclear power, hydropower and other clean energy sources were involved in production module as important energy inputs. Based on the data for the year 2007, the model was run up to the year of 2020 with different scenarios of other clean energy development. Simulation results indicate that whether or not China can meet emissions mitigation commitment under the scenario of stopping approving is closely dependent on diverse factors, especially energy consumption elasticity; however, accelerating the development of other clean energy sources willmake large contributions to China＇s emissions reduction.