2001-2010年南京市区土地出让价格的影响因素

Influencing factors of land price in Nanjing Proper during 2001-2010

土地价格作为土地市场中最具代表性和敏感性的要素,一直是土地市场运行的核心。为进一步厘清城市发展过程中不同类型土地出让价格的主要影响因素,在土地供需理论基础上,构建了土地价格影响因素的理论分析研究框架;并以南京市区96个乡(镇、街道)为基本研究单元,借鉴特征价格模型分析方法,利用2001-2010年土地出让数据,对住宅、工业、商服3种不同用地类型的价格分布影响因素进行分析。结果表明,以经济、人口、区位及配套设施为核心的需求要素,以及以地质地貌与自然景观为核心的供给要素,共同对土地价格产生影响。不同用地类型的价格空间分布特征及影响因素存在一定差异:住宅用地更多受需求要素影响,人口规模越大,经济发展潜力越好,区位条件越优越,其地价越高;工业用地受需求要素影响相对较小,而供给要素对其价格影响相对较大;商服用地规模门槛较高,环境影响较小,因此其价格主要受需求要素中地方经济水平、人口规模,以及到CBD的距离等交通条件的影响,而受供给因素影响不显著。

As one of the most representative and sensitive elements, land price has always been the core of the land market and the focus of the studies. Especially in recent years the land finance provides important support for rapid urbanization in China, which has made the land market and the pricing mechanism a focus of academic research. Current studies have achieved a lot, but most of these studies are based on either a single type, or a sin- gle year. Also, most of these studies lack scientific theoretical frameworks. In order to further affirm the main factors influencing the different types of land prices during the developmental process, this paper builds an anal- ysis framework for influencing factors of land price based on the theory of supply and demand. In a perfectly competitive market, the curve of supply-and-demand has great effects on the land pricing process together with its corresponding supply-and-demand amount. From a geographical perspective, the demand amount of urban land is mainly affected by the factors such as market, location, facilities and so on, whereas the natural supply amount of urban land is mainly affected by the factors such as local landscapes, geological features and any oth- er natural conditions. Meanwhile, monopoly behaviors, government regulation controls also have impacts on ur- ban land prices all the time. In this paper, we take the 96 towns of Nanjing Proper as basic analysis units, and use the transaction data of residential, industrial, commercial land during 2001-2010 to simulate the main factors influencing the three different types of land prices with the Hedonic model. The results demonstrate that the de- mand factors such as economic, demographic, location and facilities, as well as the supply factors such as geo- logical features and natural landscape, both have impacts on the land prices. But the impacts on the different types of land prices are not the same： the residential land price is more affected by demand factors. The larger the population size, the better the potential for economic development, the more favorable geographic condi- tions, the more opportunities to have higher residential land prices; the industrial land is relatively weakly influ- enced by the demand factors, and more influenced by the supply factors; the commercial activities require a rela- tively higher scale, but with less environmental impact. So the commercial land price is mainly affected by the level of demand factors, such as the local economy, population size, distance to the CBD and other traffic condi- tions, and the supply factors had no significant effects. Compared with the previous studies focusing on natural and geographic conditions, this study considers more humanity factors. And the theoretical framework built in our study may be of great significance for urban land pricing both in theory and in practice. One drawback is that we just take the towns as the basic analysis units. So, we cannot take the land area of each transaction into account. As a result, the scale benefit might be ignored. And that is just what should be taken into consideration in our future work.