能量棒以颜色为劣变指标的货架期预测误差分析

Error analysis of shelf-life prediction model for power bar with color as the deterioration index

以军用能量棒为研究对象,采用货架期加速预测测试法建立能量棒以颜色为劣变指标的货架期预测模型。分别研究了加速实验的设计方案和具体实验方法中各因素对能量棒货架期预测精度的影响,包括:测定重复数、拟合点数、时间间隔和加速温度条件。结果表明:样品的测定重复数对预测精度的影响较小,每个温度下检测点数和检测时间间隔对预测精度影响较大。在加速实验的设计中,加速温度个数和温度范围对预测误差影响最为显著。可通过合理的实验设计将预测精度控制在10%以内。

Shelf-life prediction model for power bar with color as the deterioration index was established based on Accelerated shelf-life testing （ASLT）. Five factors related to shelf life prediction were evaluated, including the number of replicates, the number of fitted points, time interval, temperature range and the number of temperature points.The results showed that the number of temperature points and the temperature range were more important than that of other factors.The number of fitted points and time interval were less important factors for prediction error,and the affect of the number of replicates on the accuracy of shelf life prediction could be negligible.The relative predictive error could be below 10% by accurate experimental design.