中国碳排放的区域差异及演变特征分析与因素分解

Characteristics Analysis and Factor Decomposition Based on the Regional Difference Changes in China's CO_2 Emission

在研究近16 a(1995—2010年)中国八大区域碳排放特征及其演变规律的基础上,采用LMDI分解方法,将碳排放的影响效应分解为人口规模效应、经济发展效应、能源强度效应和能源结构效应,探讨中国碳排放区域差异变化的原因与规律。结果表明:①八大区域碳排放量和人均碳排放量均呈逐年上升趋势;②东北、京津和东部沿海地区碳排放比重逐年下降,其它地区正好相反或维持不变;③经济发展效应对碳排放有最强正影响,能源强度效应对碳排放有最强负影响;④人口规模效应对包含直辖市的区域碳排放有较大的正影响,经济发展效应对经济发达地区的碳排放正效应弱于其它地区,能源强度效应对经济结构调整活跃地区的碳排放有较强的抑制作用,能源结构效应受宏观经济形式与能源政策影响,对碳排放的影响有较大波动。

Based on the research and analysis about the characteristics and the law of evolution of CO2 emission in the past 16 years （1995-2010） in China＇ s eight regions, using the method of LMDI decomposition, the effects of China＇s CO2 emission was decomposed into four influencing effects, which were population size effect, economic development effects, energy intensity effect and energy structure effect, the reason why China＇s CO2 emission showing regional differences was found. The results show that： 1） the amount of carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of eight regions showed an upward trend in the past 16 years. 2） The proportion of carbon emissions in the regions of Northeast China, Beijing and Tianjin as well as the eastern coastal zone showed a declining trend, other regions were showing an opposite trending or remaining unchanged. 3） Economic development effects have the strongest positive impact on carbon emissions, energy intensity effect has the strongest negative effect on carbon emissions. And 4） population size effect has a greater positive impact on the growth of CO2 emission in regions including municipalities, economic development effects have a weaker positive impact on the growth of CO2 emission in developed regions than other regions, energy intensity effect has an inhibition impact to the regions having an active economic restructuring, energy structure effect was affected by macroeconomic and national energy policy, which has a big fluctuation impact on carbon emissions.