通货膨胀预期差异与货币政策区域效应——基于我国31个省份面板数据的实证分析

A Research of the Differences between Inflation Expectations and the Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in China: Based on Panel Data Empirical Analysis

从各地区微观主体通货膨胀预期差异的视角研究我国货币政策区域效应,并基于2003年一季度到2012年四季度省级面板数据进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,我国货币政策存在明显的区域效应,其中有效性最强的是东部地区,其次是中部地区,最后是西部地区。根据结论提出以下政策建议以缓解我国货币政策区域效应:央行可以通过设立一个比较稳定的通货膨胀区间并信守承诺以缩小各地区通货膨胀预期的差异;通过有差别的再贴现利率和存款准备金率以降低中西部地区企业的流动性约束,从而有助于缩小由通货膨胀预期所引起的各地区厂商投资的差距;央行在进行宏观调控时应关注并借助通货膨胀预期以实现货币政策目标。

This paper investigates the regional effects of monetary policy in China from the view of regional differences of inflation expectations,and,empirically analyzes the regional effects based on the panel data model. The results show that the monetary policy has regional effects in China,and the most effective region is eastern China,then the middle China,the last is w estern China. Also the paper proposes some suggestions according to the conclusions. The Central Bank should set a stable inflation interval in order to less the differences of inflation expectations among the regions,relaxes the liquidity constraints of enterprises from the middle and w estern China through different rediscount interest rate and deposit-reserve ratio for decreasing the differences of investments,the Central Bank should pay more attention to inflation expectations and use it to realize the policy purposes.