非常规突发事件情景概念研究

Research on Scenario Concepts of Unconventional Emergencies

非常规突发事件频发已经成为我们这个时代的基本特征,极度的不确定性及其情景依赖则是非常规突发事件最重要特征,对于情景的科学认识是有效应对非常规突发事件的前提。首先对中英文情景的本义进行了讨论梳理;接着对国内外情景的一般性概念进行了分析提炼,总结了情景的概念的基本内涵;然后,把对情景概念的认识与非常规突发事件相联结,对国内代表性的情景概念的定义进行了总结、提炼和分类;最后,根据非常规突发事件应急管理的现实需求,将情景分为"聚类型"情景与"决策型"情景。

An essential feature of our time is the frequency of unconventional emergencies, whose striking features are extreme uncertainty and scenario dependence. The foundation to deal with them is to have a scientific understanding of situation. This thesis firstly discusses the original meaning of situation both in English and Chinese and sums up the basic definition of scenario concepts by analyzing and refining their general concepts at home and abroad. Then it summarizes extracts and classifies the representative definitions of domestic scenario concepts by associating the recognition of scenario concepts with unconventional emergencies. At last, this paper, based on the realistic demands of unconventional emergency management, divides situation into two parts, namely clustering type and decision-making type.