基于TOPSIS法的舟山市经济系统脆弱性评估

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ZHOUSHAN'S ECONOMY BASED ON TOPSIS

选取海岛城市舟山为研究对象,从经济系统的敏感性和应对性2个方面建立经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,运用TOPSIS法构建经济系统脆弱性评价模型以及障碍度评价模型,分析1995—2010年舟山经济脆弱性演变特征及主要影响因素。结果表明,舟山市经济系统脆弱性整体呈上升趋势;敏感性的强弱对舟山经济系统脆弱性的影响居于主导地位,第一产业在GDP中所占比重、单位GDP能耗、外贸依存度等是影响经济脆弱性的主要因素;单位GDP能耗和外贸依存度是阻碍舟山经济脆弱性降低的最大障碍因子。

This paper selects Zhoushan＇s economic system to study its vulnerability and establishes an assessment index system from its sensitivity and response capacity, which employs entropy to give weights to each index. It uses TOPSIS to construct two modes in assessing vulnerability and barrier degree. The models are applied to analyze the evolution of Zhoushan＇s economical vulnerability and its influencing factors, with results showing a rising vulnerability. The sensitivity prevails to its economical vulnerability. The main influencing factors lie in the contribution of the first industry in GDP, unit GPD energy consumption and dependence on foreign trade. The last two are the biggest barriers in reducing Zhoushan＇s economic vulnerability.