基于BP神经网络的我国铝矿资源需求情景分析

SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON CHINA'S BAUXITE RESOURCE DEMAND BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK

分析我国铝矿资源未来需求状况,以合理开发与利用国内外铝矿资源。在介绍我国铝矿资源供需现状的基础上,对影响我国铝矿资源需求的主要因素进行分析,然后利用BP神经网络建立铝矿资源需求情景分析模型,并利用1990—2011年的国际铝价、我国原铝消费强度、我国原铝产量以及我国经济发展趋势相关数据进行测算,得出2014—2020年3个不同情景下我国对铝矿资源的需求。结果表明,我国铝矿资源储量丰富,但需求量大,供需矛盾尖锐。随着我国工业化水平的不断提高和经济的持续发展,我国铝矿资源进口依存度将逐年提高,到2020年将达到50%以上。

This paper predicts the future demand for bauxite resource in China, aiming at developing bauxite resources in a right way at home and abroad. Based on a supply-demand situation, this paper analyzes the demand factors, and uses BP neural network to establish a scenario analysis model on bauxite resources, which is used, based on 1990 - 2011 global aluminum price, China＇s aluminum consumption intensity and production, and China＇s economic developing trend, to calculate Chiua＇s demand for bauxite resources in three scenarios from 2014 to 2020. China is abundant in bauxite resource, but has a sharp demand/supply conflict. As industrialization and economy goes on, China will have a rising dependence on bauxite resource import, up to 50% in 2020.