对外开放对中国经济增长的影响

The Effects of Openness on China's Economic Growth

直到现在 ,理论模型还无法把对外开放与更快的均衡增长联系起来 ,而且 ,实证文献有严重的数据方面的问题。因此 ,经济学家们一直在对外开放和经济增长之间的关系的问题上争论不休。但是 ,最近的内生增长理论已经提供了更坚实的理论基础 ,指出对外开放对经济增长有正面影响。对中国进行的实证分析结果表明 ,以 1 0 0 0×外国直接投资 /国内生产总值来衡量的对外开放的扩大挤出中国企业投资 ,但对 2年后中国经济增长 (实际GDP的增长 )起积极作用。由此 ,可以认为外国直接投资比中国企业投资更有效率。而且对外开放度指数和GDP指数之间存在长期均衡关系。但是 ,以 1 0 0 0× (出口 +进口 ) /国内生产总值来衡量的对外开放的扩大和实际出口增长对中国经济增长没有起什么作用。

For over a century,economists have debated the connection between openness and economic growth. Until recently, theoretical models have been unable to link openness and equilibrium growth. Furthermore, the empirical literature on this subject has been affected by serious data problems. Therefore, this controversy continues today. However, the endogenous growth theory provides a persuasive support for the proposition that openness positively affects economic growth. The empirical application in China shows that the enlargement of openness defined as the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP crowds out China's domestic investment but after two years is shown to positively affect China's economic growth(real GDP growth). Therefore, it can be concluded that foreign direct investment is more efficient than China's domestic investment. And, there is some long-run equilibrium relation tying openness index and GDP index. But, real export growth and the enlargement of openness defined as the ratio of exports plus imports to GDP does not affect China's economic growth.