基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价模型的中国石油安全预警研究

A Study on China′s Oil Security Pre-warning Based on AHP and Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model

建立完善的中国石油安全预警系统,对瞬息万变的国际石油市场的运行监测及时采取应对措施,有利于提高中国石油安全水平,进而有效促进我国经济可持续发展和社会稳定。在对我国石油安全状况调查、分析的基础上,选取能够比较全面反映石油安全预警的主要指标,确定第一层指标为石油市场、资源禀赋、石油需求、石油进口4大类,第二层指标包括石油价格、油价波动率、国际市场的石油可获得性等13个指标。通过将层次分析法与模糊综合评价模型结合起来,构建我国石油安全预警指标体系并进行预警,得出我国石油安全非常脆弱的结论,迫切要求实时监控各类影响因素,尤其要对石油储采比、油价波动率、石油价格以及对外依存度等因素给予更多关注。提出了提高中国石油安全对策及建议:深化石油安全预警研究,建立统一管理机制;积极参与国际市场,争取国际石油定价话语权;完善战略石油储备体系,避免受制于人;优化能源结构,加快开发新能源;积极开展国际合作,优化地缘政治环境。

A well-functioning oil security pre-warning system can help China monitor the ever-changing in- ternational oil market,allowing the adoption of countermeasures in a timely manner.This helps in improving China＇s oil security,in turn giving a boost to sustainable economic growth and social stability.On the basis of surveys and analysis of China＇s national oil security,this article has selected several key indicators to well reflect oil security pre-warning.There are four groups of first-tier indicators--oil market,resource endowment, oil demand,and oil import--and the second-tier indicators include 13 indicators such as oil price,oil price fluctuation rate,and the accessibility of oil in the international market.By combing the analytic hierarchy pro- cess （AHP） and the Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model,the authors of this article established an oil security pre-warning indicator system for China and concluded,through pre-warning operation,that China＇s oil security is highly fragile and that the country badly needs to monitor all affecting factors,particularly the reserve to production ratio,oil price fluctuation rate,oil price,and reliance on imported oil.The articles propose some countermeasures and suggestions on improving the national oil security,including strengthening oil security pre-warning studies, establishing a unified management system,actively taking part in international market ac- tivities ,trying to win the right to set international oil prices ,improving strategic oil reserve to reduce reliance on imports ,optimizing energy mix by quickening the development of ahemative energy sources ,and strengthening international cooperation to improve geopolitical environment.