摘要
文章基于福建省1990-2011年的时间序列数据,采用向量自回归模型(VAR),综合运用格兰杰因果检验、方差分解方法和脉冲响应函数,对影响区域物流发展的因素进行了动态分析。研究表明:区域经济发展、物流网络密度和政府调控是促进福建省物流业发展的主要因素,区域产业结构和物流业固定投资的促进作用相对较小,物流业从业人数则对福建省物流业发展产生了一定的阻碍作用。文章结合福建省实际情况对实证结果进行了解释和分析,并为区域物流业更好更快地发展提出相关政策建议。
The paper carries out a dynamic analysis on the influencing factors of Fujian logistics development, by applying a vector auto regressive （VAR） model, Granger Causality Test, variance decomposition and impulse response function based on time series data from 1990-2011 of Fujian Province. The results show that regional economic development, logistics net-work density and government regulation are major factors in promoting the development of provincial logistics industry. The pro-moting roles of regional industrial structure and logistics industry fixed investment are relatively smaller. The number of employ-ees of the logistics industry creates a certain impediment to the development of provincial logistics industry. Finally,the paper explains and analyzes the empirical results combining with the actual situation in the province,and also puts forward some poli-cy recommendations to promote better and faster development of regional logistics industry.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2014年第3期22-27,共6页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY069)
关键词
区域物流
向量自回归模型
方差分解
脉冲响应函数
福建
regional logistics
VAR model
variance decomposition
impulse response function
Fujian
