中国非农产业的农业生产效应分析——基于Feder模型

An Analysis on the Effect of Agricultural Production of China's Non-agricultural Industries——Based on the Feder Mode

文章借鉴Feder模型,构建非农产业和农业的两部门非均衡模型,并利用中国1981-2011年的宏观数据进行实证检验,结果显示,非农产业发展对农业生产具有拉动作用及溢出效应,且非农产业的要素边际生产率远远高于农业。因此,在实施工业反哺农业政策时,要充分考虑到小农户分散经营的特点,努力提高农业生产效率;同时也要考虑到非农产业的发展,积极发挥非农产业的农业生产的外溢效应,实现包容性增长。

Based on the FEDER model,the paper builds non-agricultural industries and disequilibrium model of two agricul-tural sectors,which are empirically tested by Chinese macroeconomic data from 1981 to 2011. The results show that the devel-opment of non-agricultural industries has stimulating and spillover effects for agricultural production,and its marginal produc-tivity is much higher than agriculture. In implementing the policy of industry regurgitation feeding agriculture, therefore, we should consider characteristics of separate management of small farmers,and improve the efficiency of agricultural production. We should also attach importance to the spillover effect of non-agricultural industries for agricultural production,to achieve in-clusive growth between non-agricultural industries and agricultural production.