产业集群内生演进超边际模型分析——基于迂回生产视角

The Super Marginal Model Analysis on the Endogenous Evolution of Industrial Clusters——From the Perspective of Roundabout Production

文章基于产业集群演进源于产业迂回度增加这一理论本质,针对产业集群产生及演进的内生机理,运用超边际分析方法,构建普遍意义上的内生专业化一般均衡模型,通过不同的条件参数设置,将中间产品产出变化和最终产品生产予以模型化表示,并分三个不同阶段对模型进行了模拟仿真分析。研究发现,在产业集群内生演进中"中间产品生产的专业化经济程度"和"互补性经济程度"是两个关键指标。当前者大于后者时,产业集群演进将呈现一种稳定的递阶过程;而当后者大于前者时,产业集群演进则是一种跳跃式的发展过程,也是一种可逆且不稳定的演化过程。

Based on the theoretical essence that industrial clusters evolution has roots in the increase of industrial detour de-grees, aiming at the endogenous mechanism of industrial clusters emerging and evolving, and applying the infra-marginal analysis method, the paper constructs a general universal equilibrium model of endogenous specialization. By setting up di-verse condition parameters, this thesis represents the change in output of intermediate products and the production of final products by the model,and makes simulation analysis on the model in three different stages. The research shows that,during the endogenous process of the industrial clusters,“the degree of economic specialization of intermediate products”and“the degree of economic complementarity”are two vital indicators. When the former indicator is larger than the latter one,industri-al clusters evolution demonstrates a stable hierarchical process,while the latter indicator is greater than the former,industrial clusters evolution appears in a saltatory development process,which is also a reversible and unstable evolution process.