冷战后朝鲜半岛局势演变的基本特征

The Evolution of the Situation on the Korean Peninsula since the End of the Cold War

2008年以来的朝鲜半岛局势,为总结归纳冷战后20多年来朝鲜半岛局势演变的基本特征提供了重要的事实依据。冷战后朝鲜半岛局势,实为由六大类问题构成的所谓"朝鲜半岛问题"的综合性表现。其中,有关朝鲜半岛南北关系的问题,对于冷战后朝鲜半岛局势的演变具有首要的意义。朝鲜半岛南北双方和周边大国构成的国际关系系统具有内在的结构性联系。因而,这些国家周期性的国内政治变化和政策调整,以及对朝鲜半岛的长远战略目标和诉求,使得冷战后朝鲜半岛局势演变表现出周期性和连锁性特征。尽管2013年朝鲜进行了第三次核试验,但由于朝鲜半岛问题的基本内容没有发生根本变化,朝鲜半岛局势没有发生根本变化。未来两到三年内,冷战后朝鲜半岛局势演变的基本特征仍将继续显现。

The situation of the Korean Peninsula since 2008 provides strong evidence for summarizing the evolution of the situation on the Korean peninsula since the end of the Cold War. Such situation is characterized by six categories of the so-called 'Questions of Korean Peninsula',among which the relationship between the two Koreas has played a primary part in the evolution of the situation. Moreover,the international relationship consisting of the two Koreas' relation and their relations with the neighboring powers has its own inherent structural connections.Thus,the domestic political changes and periodical policy adjustment in these countries,as well as their long-term strategic goals and demands on the Korean Peninsula interact with related and periodical moves in the situation on the Peninsula. Despite the fact that DPRK had the third nuclear test in 2013,no fundamental change has taken place in the situation of the Peninsula,as long as there is no fundamental change in this international relationship. Predictably,the basic characteristics of the evolving situation on post-Cold War Korean Peninsula will continue to work in the next 2 or 3 years.