欧盟反倾销调查与中国对欧出口贸易间关系研究:基于ARDL-ECM模型的分析

A Research on the Relations between EU Anti-Dumping Investigations and China's Exports to the EU

欧盟对华反倾销问题是当前中欧经贸关系进程中的重大问题,本文采用ARDL模型和边界检验技术,实证分析欧盟对华反倾销与中国对欧出口之间的长、短期关系。结果显示,我国对欧出口与欧盟GDP、出口商品价格、反倾销之间存在协整关系。根据协整分析,长期内欧盟对华反倾销并未抑制我国对欧出口贸易,相反,反倾销在一定程度上推动了对欧出口规模;欧盟成员国收入水平对出口贸易有较大的促进作用;出口价格变动对出口抑制效应不明显。

Antidumping investigation initiated by EU has been a serious problem which heavily affects bilateral trade development between China and EU. This paper probes whether there exists a long-run and short-run relationship between China exports to EU and antidumping investigation by employing ARDL model and bounds testing techniques. Utilizing quarterly series data from 1995 to 2009, we conduct an econometric analysis and find that there really exists cointegration relationship among four level variables, namely exports, GDP, commodity prices and the numbers of antidumping investigations. In terms of long run effects, antidumping investigation initiated by EU does not constitute trade barriers, on the contrary it plays positive effects on export although the effects are weak. The level of national income also shows positive effects on export. However, commodity price exhibits a negative impact although its coefficiency is not statistically significant.