后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动对我国FDI流入的影响

The Effect of RMB Real Exchange Rate Volatility on China's FDI Infl ows in the Post-crisis Era

汇率波动是影响FDI流入的重要因素。基于1994～2012年的时间序列数据，本文构建带有金融危机变量的模型和利用邹氏检验法对后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动与FDI流入的关系进行实证分析。经过实证检验发现，金融危机改变了人民币实际汇率波动与FDI流入之间原有的负相关关系，中国成为外资的“避风港”和外商规避贸易壁垒是后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动有利于FDI流入的两个主要因素。同时，人民币实际汇率的波动更加贴近市场实际汇率水平，会增加FDI的流入，有利于我国经济的发展与稳定。

The exchange rate volatility is an important factor that can influence the inflow of FD1. Based on the series data from 1994 to 2012, this paper uses Clow testing and constructs a model with a variable representing financial crisis to analyze the correlation between real exchange rate volatility of RMB and the inflow of FDI. Through an empirical analysis, we find that this correlation turns out to be opposite. There are two main factors accounting for the positive influence. One is that China has become a shelter for foreign funds. The other is that the foreign traders want to avoid trade barriers. Meanwhile, we conclude that if the exchange rate volatility is further close to the real exchange rate of the market, it can increase the inflow of FDI which may be beneficial to the development and stability of our economy.