都昌县土地覆被变化时空特征与预测研究

Study on forecast and space-time characteristics of land cover change in Duchang County

以遥感影像为数据源，采用ENVI技术提取基础数据，结合ArcGIS对研究区近20年土地覆被变化特征进行分析；在此基础上，利用Markov模型在随机过程状态方面模拟的优势，分析研究区土地覆被变化趋势。研究结果表明：研究区近20年土地覆被类型以农用地、林地为主，前期（1990～1999年）农用地变化较大，后期（1999～2008年）加强了对未利用土地的高效利用，人口增加、政策调整、气候变化是影响研究区土地覆被变化的主要因素；对比预测进一步验证了Markov模型对初始状态的继承性，为提高土地变化预测的合理性，通过对初始概率矩阵进行加工计算，使模拟结果得到了改善。

Based on the ENVI technology extracts data from the remote sensing image, combined with ArcGIS technology analysis of characteristics of land cover change in recent 20 years in the study area; And then, using the advantages of aspects of Markov random process model in simulation, analysis the trends of land cover change. The results shows that： in recent 20 years, agricultural land and forest land are the main land cover types in the study area, in the early（1990 to 1999）, agricultural land changed greatly, in the late（1999 to 2008）, strengthened the efficient use of unused land, land cover change in the study area are largely driven by population growth, policy adjustment and climate change. Estimate further validated Markov model for the inheritance of initial state, through processing the initial probability matrix, that the simulation results have improved, and the forecast result tend to reasonable.