交通一体化与国际化影响下的旅客运输量预测

Comprehensive passenger transport and civil aviation passenger transport forecast based on traffic integration and internationalization

"十二五"时期,中国经济社会发展将进入一个新的历史阶段,交通运输也将进入新的发展时期,交通一体化与国际化是现代交通运输业发展的新趋势,将会深刻影响着中国的综合交通与民航客运量,本文构建了基于交通一体化与国际化影响下的综合交通与民航客运量预测,与传统方法相比该模型不仅考虑经济、人口等常规因素而且能较系统反映出交通一体化以及国际化对综合交通与民航客运量的影响。

During the ＂Twelfth Five-Year Plan＂ period, China＇s economic and social development will enter a new his- torical level as well as transportation. Traffic integration and internationalization is the new trend of the devel- opment of modern transportation, which will affect our integrated transport passenger traffic profoundly. An in- tegrated transport passenger traffic prediction model is developed considering the effect of traffic integration and internationalization, compared with traditional methods, not only considers those ordinary factors such as economy and transportation developing, but also reflects the traffic integration and internationalization＇s effect to the integrated transport passenger traffic systematically.