基于P-S-R模型的河南省土地生态安全评价及预测

Evaluation and Forecast of Land Ecology Security of He′nan Province Based on P-S-R Model

依据P-S-R框架模型构建土地生态安全评价指标体系,运用土地生态安全综合指数模型评价2002—2011年河南省土地生态安全状况,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测其未来9a的土地生态安全态势。结果表明:2002—2011年河南省土地生态安全值在0.45上下波动,土地生态处于临界安全水平,2012—2020年呈下降趋势,表明土地生态系统结构发生变化,土地生态环境受到一定破坏,土地生态系统服务功能已开始退化,虽尚可维持其基本功能,但受干扰后易恶化,土地生态环境脆弱,制约了区域经济的发展。该研究可为改善区域生态环境及生态安全规划管理提供依据。

According to P-S-R framework model, the evaluation index system of land ecological security was built, the composite index model was used to evaluate the land ecological security situation in He＇nan Prov- ince from 2002 to 2011, and the gray system GM（1, 1） model was used to predict the land ecological situa- tion in the next nine years. Results showed that the land ecology was at a critical security level, and the se- cure value fluctuated around 0.45 from 2002 to 2011 and would decrease from 2012 to 2020. It indicated that the structure of land ecological system had been changed and the land ecological environment had been de- stroyed to some extent, land ecosystem service function had begun to degenerate. The basic ecological sys- tem functions were fair to maintain, but could be deteriorated easily after disturbance, and land ecological en- vironment would be fragile, restricting the development of regional economy. This study can provide the ba- sis to improve the regional eco-environmental planning and ecological security management.