我国石化产业碳排放脱钩效应研究

A Research on the Uncoupling Effect of Carbon Emissions in China's Petrochemical Industry

以我国石化产业为研究对象,结合弹性脱钩理论,建立我国石化产业集群碳排放弹性分析的脱钩模型,对石化产业的减排脱钩弹性、能耗脱钩弹性、产业发展弹性效应分别进行计算与评价,并结合评价结果为我国石化产业的低碳化路径提出建议。结果表明:石化产业CO2排放量增长速率呈现先增后减的趋势,碳减排工作水平在2006年以后稳固提升;石化产业的能耗增长量整体处于较低水平,产业节能工作效果良好;石化产业发展迅速,特别是近几年来保持较高的速度,整体拉动了国家经济的发展。

Using China＇s petrochemical industry as the object of study, combing with elastic uncoupling theory,the article sets up the uncoupling model of carbon emissions elastic analysis for China＇s petrochemical industry cluster and dividedly calculates and evaluates the petrochemical industry＇s emission reduction uncoupling elasticity,energy consumption uncoupling elasticity and industry development elastic effect. Combing with the evaluation results, it puts forward suggestions for the low-carbon approach of China＇s petrochemical industry. The results indicate that, the growth rate of petrochemical industry CO2emission amount emerged the trend of increasing at the beginning and reducing at the end and the working level of carbon emission reduction steadily upgraded after 2006;totally energy consumption growth amount of the petrochemical industry was at a relatively low level, the industrial energy saving work achieved good results; the petrochemical industry developed rapidly, especially for recent years,the development of the industry kept a relatively high speed and wholly drove the development of national economy.