GM模型和Markov模型在公路客运量预测中的综合运用

The Comprehensive Application of GM Models and Markov Models in Highway Passenger Volume Forecast

文章在应用灰色理论构建的GM预测模型基础上,以Markov模型为修正方法,建立GM!Markov模型,并以陕西省2003!2012年公路客运量为基础数据对上述理论进行实例验证。结果表明:与实际客运量相比,GM模型的相对误差为11.08%,而GM!Markov模型的相对误差仅为5.61%,GM!Markov模型拟合精度较高,更加贴近实际情况。

Based on GM prediction model built by using the gray theory, with Markov model as the correction method, this article established GM-Markov model, and the above theory was practically verified by using 2003-2012 highway passenger volume in Shaanxi Province as the base data.The results showed that; compared with the actual passenger volume, the relative error of GM models is 11.08% ,while the relative error of GM-Markov model is only 5. 61% ,and GM-Markov model fitting has higher precision, much closer to the actual situa- tion.