未来气候情景下四川盆地冬小麦生育期气候资源及生产潜力的变化

Change of Climatic Resources and Potential Productivity During the Entire Growth Period of Winter Wheat Under Future Climate Scenario in Sichuan Basin

选取区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2和B2气候情景(2071-2100年)及基准气候条件(1961-1990年)气象要素资料,利用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的方法和侯光良法等分析四川盆地冬小麦生育期内主要气候资源(≥0℃积温、日照时数、降水量、参考作物蒸散量和缺水率)和冬小麦生产潜力(光合、光温和气候生产潜力)的时空变化特征。结果表明,与基准气候条件相比,在A2和B2情景下,2071-2100年冬小麦生育期内≥0℃积温、日照时数和参考作物蒸散量在四川盆地大部地区呈增加趋势。A2情景下,2071-2100年降水量在盆南和绵阳部分地区呈减少趋势,而在其它地区呈增加趋势;缺水率在盆地大部地区呈增加趋势。B2情景下,2071-2100年降水量在盆地大部呈减少趋势,仅在川东北地区呈增加趋势;缺水率在大部地区呈增加趋势。未来四川盆地大部地区冬小麦受干旱灾害的风险加大。在A2和B2情景下,2071-2100年盆地大部地区冬小麦光合、光温和气候生产潜力呈增加趋势,未来四川盆地气候资源变化对冬小麦的增产有利。

Based on the daily data of A2 and B2 climate scenario （2071 -2100） and baseline climate condition （1961 -1990） from the regional climate model PRECIS, the spatial and temporal change characteristics of the climate resources （thermal time 〉10℃, sunshine hours, precipitation, reference crop evapotranspiration and water deficient ratio） during winter wheat-growing periods and potential productivity （photosynthetic potential productivity, photo- temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity ）. of winter wheat in Sichuan basin were calculated and analyzed according to the methods recommended by FAO and Hou guang-liang. The results showed that the thermal time≥0℃, sunshine hours and reference crop evapotranspiration during the entire growth period of winter wheat would increase from 2071 to 2100 under A2 and B2 climate scenario compared with the baseline climate conditions from 1961 to 1990 in most regions of Sichuan basin. The precipitation would decrease from 2071 to 2100 under A2 climate scenario in Mianyang and south regions of Sichuan basin, but for the other regions appeared increasing tendency. The precipitation would decrease from 2071 to 2100 under B2 climate scenario in most regions of Sichuan basin, but for the individual regions appeared increasing tendency. The water deficient ratio of winter wheat showed increasing tendency in the future, indicated that the winter wheat drought disaster risk would increase in Sichuan basin. Compared with the baseline climate conditions from 1961 to 1990, the photosynthetic potential productivity, photo-temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity of winter wheat would increase from 2071 to 2100 under A2 and B2 climate scenario in most regions of Sichuan basin. Future changes Sichuan basin in climatic resources to benefit winter wheat yield in