中国入境旅游发展的时空差异演变分析:1991—2010

AN ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL DISPARITIES OF INBOUND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA:1991—2010

以区域经济非均衡增长理论为基础,采用计量经济学的方法,对1991—2010年中国入境旅游发展水平差异变化的时空特征进行实证分析。结果表明:20世纪90年代,我国入境旅游发展水平的省际绝对差异和相对差异均在逐步收敛;进入新千年以来,尽管相对差异仍在逐步缩小,但绝对差异有所扩大;我国区域入境旅游经济发展总体上呈现出典型的非极化不平衡发展态势,局部地区两极分化现象严重,新的次级入境旅游增长中心凸现,三大地带间入境旅游经济发展水平的梯度差异明显。基于上述结论,提出调控区域差异、实现区域旅游经济统筹协调发展的政策建议,主要包括客观看待入境旅游的区域差异,优化旅游产业的地域分工体系和重构区域旅游统筹发展战略等。

Tourism is potentially considered as a vehicle for reducing inequalities in regional development through the spread of resources from the more developed regions of a country to its less developed areas. Based on the theories of unbalanced regional economic growth and the methods of econometrics, this paper explores the spatio-temporal trend structure of inbound tourism development level in 31 provinces of China from 1991 to 2010. Concretely speaking, the time-sequenced characteristics of inter-provincial differences were investigated with the standard deviation and Theil coefficient value of a composite index consisting of industrial scale index and quality index from absolute and relative perspectives; the evolution of spatial framework on inbound tourism in the past 20 years was expounded by using the deviation and ratio results. The results show that absolute and relative disparities in provincial-level of China＇s inbound tourism tends to reduce in the 1990＇s; Relative disparities has been gradually reduced while absolute difference has been somewhat enlarged from 2001 to 2010; Regional disparity of inbound tourism development level in our country presents a non-polarized and unbalanced development tendency as a whole, i.e. serious polarization lies between some western and coastal provinces; New secondary tourism economic growth centers such as the provinces in southwestern, northeastern and central China emerged in recent years; Gradient differences are still existing in the development level of inbound tourism in 3 economic zones of China. Finally, a para- digrn framework for achieving a coordinated regional tourism development in China is also proposed.