中国纯碱出口能力预测及对世界纯碱市场的影响

China′s soda ash export capacity forecast and its impact on the world′s soda ash marketing

中国作为世界上最大的纯碱生产国和消费国、第二大纯碱出口国,其出口能力的变化将对世界纯碱市场产生深远的影响,因此研究中国纯碱出口能力具有十分重要的意义。针对以往纯碱产量研究方法的不足,建立多元线性回归模型对纯碱产量进行预测;采用灰色系统GM(1,N)模型对纯碱消费量进行了预测,并分析了中国纯碱出口能力的变化,结果显示中国纯碱出口能力存在巨大潜力。针对中国纯碱出口能力的未来变化趋势,重点分析了中国纯碱出口能力的变化对世界纯碱市场的影响,指出中国纯碱出口量的稳步增长,对平衡国内纯碱市场的供求矛盾将起到至关重要的作用,并有力地促进了世界纯碱市场的自由贸易化程度。

As the largest soda ash production and consumption country and the second largest exporter in the world,the changes of the China＇s export capacity has a profound impact on the world market.So it＇s very important for China to research the its soda export capacity.Firstly, a model,which was established after analyzing the disadvantages of the current forecast models ,was applied to establish multivariate linear regression model to forecast soda ash＇s output.Besides ,the soda ash＇s consumption was predicted by GM （1 ,N） model.At last,the changes of China＇s export capacity were analyzed,and the forecast result showed that China＇s soda ash export capacity has a great potential.Based on the future trends of China＇s soda ash export capacity, the effects of the changes of China＇s soda ash export capacity on the world＇s soda ash market were ana- lyzed prioritizedly.It also pointed out that China＇s steady growth in soda ash export will play an important role to balance the contradiction between supply and demand of China＇s soda ash market and will vigorously promote the free trade degree of world＇s soda ash market.