人口红利变化与中国经济发展方式转变

Demographic Dividend Changes and Transformation of China's Economic Development Mode

从人口转变理论出发,通过对人口年龄结构变化阶段的分析,得出人口红利变化会呈现倒U型曲线的一般规律,并依次经历三个关键转折点。采用增长贡献分解法对中国人口红利变化的测度结果显示,中国在上世纪80年代中期进入人口红利区间,在2010年越过人口红利拐点,此后人口红利贡献率持续降低,并将在2030年转向人口负债。人口红利变化通过资本形成、劳动力供给、人力资本积累和劳动力配置效率等四个维度对经济增长产生影响。在人口红利逐渐减少的背景下,中国经济发展方式必须在基本路径、劳动要素、资源要素、政策调控和根本目标等方面进行转型。

From the theory of demographic transition, through the analysis of the stages of changes in population age structure, it is found that the changes in the demographic dividend would show a general rule of inverted U-shaped curve, and undergo three key turning points in turn. By us- ing growth contribution decomposition method to measure the changes of China＇s demographic divi- dend, the results show that China entered the demographic dividend interval in the mid-1980s, crossed the inflection point of demographic dividend in 2010, and will turn to demographic debt in 2030 af- ter the continued decline of demographic dividend contribution rate. The changes in the demographic dividend would have an impact on economic growth through the four dimensions of capital formation, labor supply, human capital accumulation and labor force allocation efficiency. In the context of the demographic dividend on the decline, China＇s economic development mode must be transformed in such areas as the base path, the labor factor, the resource elements, the policy adjustment and other fundamental objectives.