融资约束与投资-现金流敏感度的非单调性分析——来自房地产行业预防性动机的证据

A Non-Monotony Analysis of Financing Constraints and Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity: Evidence of Precautionary Motive from China's Real Estate Industry

投资-现金流敏感度常用于表征企业融资约束水平。然而,对比2000-2011年期间房地产行业"融资约束"与"投资-现金流敏感度"运行特征发现,二者在2007年后,呈现出截然相反的突变结构。这一背离与"KZ(kaplan和zingales)批判"中有关二者"非单调关系"的论述相吻合。理论分析表明,非单调性可归因于企业预防性动机的变化,即存在"融资约束↑→预防性动机↑→投资-现金流敏感度↓"的传导逻辑。而基于预防性动机的流动性平滑模型,进一步检验了上述路径的存在性,从而为"KZ批判"提供了来自预防性动机的证据。

Investment-cash flow sensitivity is often used to represent the level of corporate financ- ing constraints. However, by comparing the operating characteristics between financing constraints and investment-cash flow sensitivity in the real estate industry from 2000 to 2011, it can be found that after 2007 both of them present a totally opposite breaking structure. This kind of deviation inoscu- lates with the discourse of non-monotony relationship between the two in the KZ criticism. The theo- ritical analysis indicates that the non-monotony can be attributed to the changes of corporate precau- tionary motives, i.e., there exists the conductive logic of ＂financing constraint↑→precautionary mo- tive↑→investment-cash flow sensitivity↓ ＂ . While the liquidity smoothing model based on the pre- cautionary motive can further verify the existence of the above-mentioned path, thus it can provide evidence of precautionary motive for KZ criticism