重大突发事件情景应对约束下的应急车辆联合运输协调决策

Decision-making for Emergency Vehicles Intermodal Coordination under Scenario-coping Constraint of Major Emergency

针对重大突发事件应急运输需求的特征,分析了情景应对约束下应急车辆联合运输独立决策和集体决策2种运输模式,分别给出了其基于运输效率最大化的数学模型。考虑突发事件情景需求的不确定性、调运成本结构的不同,以及独立决策下不同运输应急服务点有Pareto优化的余地,分析了应急车辆联合运输中2个应急服务点之间的协调关系,构建了基于情景应对机制约束下的协调模型,并针对不同情景对模型进一步分析,得到一些重要的结论。最后通过算例计算分析验证了这些结论的正确性和有效性。通过合理情景应对机制的设定,使得运输效率最大化的同时,2个应急服务点运输得到协调,达到情景应对运输决策优化,及时有效地降低突发事件带来的灾害的目的。

According to the characteristics of emergency transport demand for major emergency, 2 transport patterns, which are independent decision-making and collective decision-making for emergency vehicles combined transport under the constraints of scenario-coping, are analyzed, and the corresponding mathematic models based on maximizing transport efficiency are formulated respectively. Considering the factors, such as the uncertainty of emergency scenario demand, the difference of transport cost structures, and different transport emergency service stations under independent decision-making having Pareto optimization room, the coordinative relation between 2 transport emergency service stations is analyzed, the coordination model based on scenario-coping mechanism is constructed, and it is used for analysis under different scenarios, which obtained some important conclusions, whose correctness and effectiveness are verified by numerical example. By setting a reasonable scenario-coping mechanism, the 2 transport emergency service stations are coordinated as transport efficiency maximizing, which can helps to reduce the disaster brought by emergency timely and effectively while scenario-coping transport decision-making is optimal.