危机冲击、信息解读与信息披露:基于金融危机的证据

The Impact of Market Crashes on Information Analysis and Disclosure： Evidence from the Financial Crisis

以2008年的金融危机为契机，本文考察了危机冲击如何影响投资者的信息解读，并结合危机冲击对公司信息披露的影响，进一步分析了在危机冲击下投资者信息解读的合理性。结果表明，在危机冲击下，投资者更倾向于将可操纵性应计盈余理解成管理者机会主义行为的结果，而不是管理者向市场传递未来现金流信息的一种工具，从而降低了可操纵性应计盈余的价值相关性。并且，当公司属于非国有企业或者非管制行业时，将有利于减弱危机冲击对投资者信息解读的负面影响；同时，结合危机冲击对公司信息披露的影响，本文进一步的分析表明，在金融危机的冲击下，公司并未披露更低质量的会计盈余。这说明，在危机冲击下，投资者对可操纵性应计盈余的估值更低，不是因为盈余质量更差，在很大程度上是因为市场低迷的悲观情绪影响了投资者对盈余信息的解读；并且，这种影响既不利于投资者适当地对公司进行估价，也将影响资本市场的资源配置效率。

Taking impact of the crisis on on the information disc the 2008 financial crisis as an opportunity, this paper investigates the the information analysis, and also investigates the impact of the crisis losure in order to further examine whether investors analyze the infor- mation rationally in the crisis. The results show that under the impact of the crisis the inves tors are more inclined to consider discretional accruals as the result of opportunistic behavior of managers rather than a means of information about future cash flow delivered to investors, which reduces the value relevance of discretional accruals. Meantime, our results also suggest the characteristics of non-state-owned, unregulated enterprises will be beneficial to alleviate the negative effect of the crisis on interpreting information of the investors. At last, our re- sults also implicate the quality of earnings during the crisis is not worse than that in other pe- riods. This shows the pessimistic sentiment of market affects the earnings information analy- sis of the investors, and it is disadvantageous to equity valuation and resources allocation in the capital market.