有形信息、无形信息与分析师行为

Tangible Information, Intangible Information, and Analyst Behavior

本文研究了有形信息、无形信息对分析师行为的影响。实证结果表明，分析师主要基于有形信息进行预测，股评、股评变化、盈余预测以及盈余预测变化均主要受到有形信息的影响；而无形信息对股评和股评变化的影响最显著，一定程度上验证了“过度自信”假说。进一步的研究发现，分析师对有形信息过度重视，四种预测指标均表现出对有形信息的过度反应；而股评和股评变化对无形信息的过度反应最严重，这一点满足“过度自信”假说。

This paper studies how tangible information and intangible information affect analyst behavior. There are subjective judgment differences among recommendations, chan- ges of recommendations, earnings forecasts, and changes of earnings forecasts. Recommenda- tions and changes of recommendations mainly reflect corporate growth opportunities in the fu- ture, whereas earnings forecasts and changes of earnings forecasts mainly reflect corporate fi- nancial performances. Thus tangible information and intangible information should have dif- ferent impact on recommendations, changes of recommendations, earnings forecasts, and chan- ges of earnings forecasts. The empirical results show that tangible information and intangible information both significantly affect the four forecasting items, and they change in the same direction as tangible information and intangible information. Analysts＇ forecasts are mainly based on tangible information, because the four forecasting items are mainly affected by tangi- ble information. However, compared to earnings forecasts and changes of earnings forecasts, intangible information affect recommendations and changes of recommendations more signifi- cantly, which means the overconfidence hypothesis partially makes sense. Further, analysts overweight tangible information, because all of the four forecasting items overreact to tangible information. But in contrast, recommendations and changes of recommendations overreact to intangible information more strongly, which is in accordance with the overconfidence hypoth- esis. Finally, it＇s worth noting that earnings forecasts and changes of earnings forecasts also overreact to intangible information, which indicates that analysts are incapable to fully under stand intangible information, this causes earnings forecasts and changes o{ earnings forecasts overreact to intangible information.