谁才是推高国际油价的真实动因?——中国需求,资本投机,抑或OPEC供给

Who Is the Culprit of Pushing Up International Oil Prices?:China's Demand,Speculation,or OPEC Supply

本文考察了中国需求、资本投机和OPEC供给等多种因素,建立了一个结构向量自回归模型,采用1997年1月至2012年1月的月度数据,深入研究了中国需求、资本投机和OPEC供给对于国际油价的即期波动、短期变动和长期走势的影响程度和传导方向。研究发现,不同因素的结构性冲击对国际油价会产生明显的时段效应,因而简单地将国际油价高涨归结于中国需求是不合理的。

This paper employs a structural VAR model with the consideration of Chinese demand, speculation and OPEC supply, and uses the monthly data to investigate the impact and conduction direction of Chinese de- mand, speculation and OPEC supply on world oil prices＇ immediate effect, short - term effect and long - term effect respectively. The results reveal that the structural shock of different factors on oil prices will cause a phase effect obviously, thus it is unreasonable to consider Chinese demand as the key factor causing internation- al oil prices surge.