金融危机时期宏观政策对企业出口、销售和盈利的影响

Impacts of Macroeconomic Policies during the 2008 Financial Crisis on Firms' Exports,Sales,and Profitability

本文通过分析《中国人民银行危机时期企业经营环境与融资问卷调查》涵盖的2058家企业数据考察了2008年后我国宏观调控政策对制造业企业的影响。结果显示,截至2009年上半年,稳定汇率的政策对企业的出口额、销售和利润有显著促进作用,宽松信贷政策显著提升了企业的利润。相比而言,虽然"家电下乡"消费补贴政策与企业的出口决策显著负相关,出口退税率与此决策显著正相关,但这两项政策在危机时期的调整并没有起到比危机前更显著的作用。

By using the data of 2058 firms from ＂Business Environment and Financing of Enterprises Survey＂ by People＇s Bank of China, this paper examines the effect of macroeconomic policies initiated by the Chinese government after the 2008 global economic crisis on manufacturing firms. Empirical results show that, until the first half of year 2009, the stabilized exchange rate significantly promoted exports, sales and profits of firms, and the more loosened credit environment significantly increased firms＇ profits. Consumption subsidy in the home appliances industry is significantly negatively correlated with firms＇ export decision, while export tax re- bate rates are significantly positively correlated with this decision. However, the adjustment of these two policies during the crisis did not show significant difference from that before the crisis.