媒体关注度、分析师关注度与盈余预测准确度

Media Attention,Analyst Attention and Earnings Forecast Accuracy

本文以2008～2012年深圳证券交易所A股主板上市公司为样本，研究媒体关注度对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响并挖掘其影响机制。实证结果发现，媒体关注度的增加会显著提升分析师关注度，而且通过分析师关注度这一中间渠道进一步提高了分析师盈余预测准确度。进一步的研究表明媒体关注度对盈余预测准确度的影响主要体现在对分析师过度乐观倾向的纠偏上。本文不仅拓宽了分析师盈余预测影响因素的研究范围，同时也增进了我们对媒体在资本市场中作用的理解。本文根据研究结论提出了如何更好发挥媒体和分析师在资本市场中的作用的政策建议。

Based on the data of the A - share listed companies on the Main Board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we explore whether media attention has an impact on the analysts＇ earnings forecast accuracy and its channel. It is found that higher media attention could significantly raise analysts＇ attention, and will further lead to higher degree of earnings forecast accuracy through the channel of analysts＇ attention. Further analysis shows that the positive effect of media attention on analysts＇ earnings forecast accuracy is mainly reflected in its correction on the analysts＇ overoptimistic bias. This paper not only broadens the research scope of influencing factors in analysts＇ forecasting activities, but also improves our understanding in the role of media in the capital market. Finally, it gives policy suggestions on how the media and analysts play their roles better in the capital market.