中国区域产业集聚与产业转移——基于空间经济理论的分析

Industry Agglomeration and Industrial Migration in China' s Industrialization

基于空间经济理论对产业集聚、转移发生的原因和条件进行理论分析和数值模拟，并结合中国改革后的经验数据，对制造业市场份额、产业规模和区域之间交易成本与产业集聚、转移的关系进行检验和说明，认为中国工业化进程中表现出两个明显的阶段特征：（1）1996-2005年是以东部为中心的产业集聚过程，这一阶段早期表现为制造业向东部地区集聚，后期表现为制造业由大城市向周边中小城市转移，由珠三角地区向长三角和环渤海湾地区转移；（2）2005年至今由单中心集聚结构向多中心均衡结构转变，这一阶段中西部地区已出现规模性的产业转移趋势，这种产业转移的动力受全球价值链区域分工、中国制造业劳动力结构和政府主导的区域发展战略影响。

The paper studies the reason for and condition of industrial agglomeration and migration based on spatial economic theory. And then, whir the industrialization experience data in China, it test the relations among industrial agglomeration, migration, manufacturing market share, scale and transaction costs among all the regions. We think there are two obvious stage characteristics： the period from 1996 to 2005 is a stage when industrial agglomeration is centralized to the east areas, while the period since 2005 has been witnessing a process of transformation from a single-center structure to a multi-center equilibrium structure. The large-scale industrial migration trend has appeared in Midwest in the second stage, which is influenced by the labor divisions of global value chain among regions, the manufacturing labor structure with Chinese characteristics, and the regional development strategy of government-leading.