基于灰色马尔科夫链的道路交通死亡率预测

Prediction of road traffic mortality based on grey Markov chain

道路交通事故死亡率是反映道路交通安全的重要指标,为了对其进行准确预测,将灰色系统理论与马尔科夫链结合起来,构建了灰色马尔科夫预测模型,并将该模型与GM(1,1)模型进行比较分析。结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能更好地预测道路交通事故死亡率。

Road traffic mortality is an important indicator of road safety. To forecast the traffic mor- tality, gray theory and Markov chain theory were combined to construct a road traffic prediction mod- el. The model was compared with GM （ 1,1 ） model. The results show that the relative error of grey Markov chain prediction is lower than that of the GM （ 1,1 ） model.