我国粮食增产影响因素的贡献分解:2003-2011

Contribution decomposition on influence factors of grain production increase from 2003 to 2011 in China

运用LMDI方法对我国2003-2011年粮食增产进行因素分解,结果表明:全国绝大多数省份都实现了粮食产量的稳定增长,影响全国粮食生产的四个因素中,耕地面积减少为负向作用,复种指数的提升、粮食种植比例的增加和粮食单产的提高均对粮食增产起正向影响,这其中粮食单产的提高贡献最高,粮食种植比例的增加贡献最小。因此,改善农田的生产条件、鼓励对农田进行长期投资和利用国际粮食市场是破解我国粮食安全难题的主体思路。

The author uses LMDI method to decompose the factors of grain production increase from 2003 to 2011.The result indicates that most provinces have achieved their steady increase in grain production, among the four factors affecting grain production, cultivated area has negative effect, while the increases in multiple farming indices, the proportion of farming area, and production per unit area have positive effect. In addition, the contribution of the increase in production per unit area is maximal while the increase in the proportion of farming area has the minimal contribution. Therefore, the improvement in farmland produce condition, the encouragement in long-term investment and the use of international grain market will be the main counter-measures in dealing with Chinese food security.