基于灰色系统的橡胶隔震支座性能老化预测

Prediction on Ageing Performance of Rubber Isolation Bearing based on Gray Theory System

采用灰色系统理论对橡胶隔震支座的老化性能数据进行了模拟,对比发现这种方法用于拟合隔震支座的老化性能变化规律具有很高的精度。在此基础上,采用3种GM(1,1)模型预测橡胶隔震支座使用40年后的力学性能变化情况,并与相关的隔震支座老化研究成果作对比,预测值与实测值具有较高的一致性。

The data of ageing performance of rubber isolation beatings is simulated by the gray system theory.The comparison results show that this method has high precision on fitting the aging performance variation rule of isolation bearings.On the basis of it,using three kinds of GM （1,1） models to predict the mechanical properties change of rubber bearings after used 40 years,and do the comparison with the related research achievement of rubber isolation beatings ageing,the results show that the predicted values highly consistent with the actual measured values.