能源消费结构的影响因素研究

Study on Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption Structure

调整能源消费结构和控制能源消费总量已成为我国当前能源管理的重点政策。从经济、结构、技术、政策等四个维度选择11个能源消费结构的影响因素,利用时间序列数据,运用灰色技术测算它们与能源消费结构的关联度。由此得出影响能源消费结构因素的重要程度,其中能源价格影响最大,产业结构次之,关联度在0.9以上的有8个因素,在0.8以下的只有一个因素,从而提出相应调整能源消费结构的对策建议。

Adjusting the energy consumption structure and controlling the total of it have become the focus of the current en- ergy policy in China. This paper has selected 11 influnencing factors of the energy consumption structure from four dimen- sions of economic, structure, technology policy and measured their correlation with the energy consumption structure, using time series data and grey technology. Thus conclusions can be drawn that among the influnencing factors of the energy con- sumption structure, energy prices had the greatest influence on it with the industrial structure in the second place, and the correction of eight factors is above O. 9 and only one lower than O. 8. The corresponding suggestions on energy consumption structure adjustment has also been put foward.