基于模糊时间序列的国内旅游需求预测

Domestic Tourism Demand Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Time Series

在分析了大量经典模糊时问序列模型的基础上,将其引入国内旅游需求预测,指出了其在区间划分上存在的问题。结合聚类算法的优点对区间划分进行处理,提出了基于改进聚类算法的模糊时间序列模型对国内旅游需求人数加以预测。研究结果表明,该模型在保证较高预测精度的前提下,简化了计算,且易于理解,具有较好的应用价值。

Lots of models about fuzzy time series are analyzed and then brought to forecast the domestic tourism demand, with the issue in the interval divide pointed out. Combined with the merit of clustering algorithm, and based on improved clustering algorithm,the fuzzy time series model is proposed to forecast the domestic tourism demand. The results show that the proposed model not only maintain forecasting accuracy, but also easy to calculate and understand, with preferable appli- cation values.