经济转型时期的资本调整成本、技术冲击与扩张性货币政策效果

Capital Adjustment,Technology Shock and Expansionary Monetary Policy during Transition Period of China

实证分析中国经济中资本调整成本的来源、大小和影响，根据1993-2011年宏观经济数据校准引入中国现实经济特征的新凯恩斯模型，发现包含资本调整成本的模型能在相当程度上解释中国宏观经济动态。模拟结果显示，后危机时期资本调整成本增大会弱化技术进步对经济增长的促进作用，对扩张性货币政策效力则制约更显著，且产出和消费均经历约5个季度的倒驼峰调整过程，呈现典型的“高投资低消费”的有效需求不足局面。

Based on the empirically evidence of China＇s capital adjustment costs （CAC）, this paper introduces CAC and other reality-economic characteristics into new keynesian model, which can explain the macroeconomic dynamic to a consider- able degree. The model simulation results show that： during the transition period characterized by increasing CAC, capital market frictions will weaken the effect of technology progress in promoting economic growth. Meanwhile, the constraints on the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy are more significant, the output and consumption experience about five quarters~ inverted hump process to adjust, which makes economy in the situation of lack of effective demand characterized by the coexistence of high investment and low consumption.