中国最优居民消费率的估算及变动机制分析

The Estimation of the Optimal Rate of Resident Consumption in China and It's Change Mechanism

1978年以来，我国居民消费率的变动特征表现为长期波动下降。为判断居民消费率的运行情况，根据代表性家庭效用最大化估算出最优居民消费率。研究表明，1978-1990年，实际居民消费率与最优居民消费率基本吻合；1991～2000年，实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率7．8个百分点；2001-2010年，实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率18．3个百分点。对居民消费率偏低贡献率的分析表明，城镇居民消费率偏低是导致整体居民消费率偏低的主要原因。通过考察预期收入、利率和效用函数改变对最优居民消费率的影响，分析了居民消费率的变动机制。

The rate of consumption is based on the economic structure. Since 1978, the rate of resident consumption in China has represented the feature of long- term decline with short-term fluctuation. We estimated the optimal rate of con- sumption according to the representative households＇ utility function. According to the research we can conclude that the real rate of household consumption basically coincided with the optimal rate from 1978 to 1990; from 1991 to 2000, the actual rate of resident consumption was generally 7. 8% lower than the optimal rate; from 2001 to 2010, the actual rate of resident consumption was generally 18. 3% lower than the optimal rate. The analysis of low household consumption rate of contribu- tion rate showed that the low consumption rate of urban residents is the main cause of the low overall household consumption rate.