我国文化产业发展影响因素的动态分析——基于VAR模型

Dynamic Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Development of China's Cultural Industry——Based on VAR Model

根据1995—2011年统计数据，建立VAR模型，运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解，分析文化消费需求、文化基础设施建设、人力资本水平、经济发展水平、政府扶持对我国文化产业发展的影响程度及其动态变化。结果表明：文化消费需求、人力资本水平、经济发展水平冲击对文化产业发展有正向影响，且影响呈动态增长趋势；文化基础设施建设投资和政府扶持冲击对文化产业发展有短期影响，但不具有动态持续性。

The paper based on the statistical data from 1995 to 2011, establishes the VAR model and uses Granger Causality test, impulse gree and dynamic change of the man capital, level of economic try. The results show that： the response function and variance decomposition method to analyze the influence dedemand of cultural consumption, cultural infrastructure construction, level of hudevelopment, government support on the development of China＇s cultural indusdemand of cultural consumption, level of human capital, level of economic devel- opment has a positive effect appeared the trend of dynamic growth; the government support, cultural infrastructure construction has a short-term impact, but don＇t have dynamic sustainability.